{"id":20678,"date":"2022-04-23T09:05:34","date_gmt":"2022-04-23T09:05:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/?p=20678"},"modified":"2022-04-23T09:05:34","modified_gmt":"2022-04-23T09:05:34","slug":"ban-on-russian-gas-would-plunge-germany-into-recession-warns-bundesbank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/2022\/04\/23\/ban-on-russian-gas-would-plunge-germany-into-recession-warns-bundesbank\/","title":{"rendered":"Ban on Russian gas would plunge Germany into recession, warns Bundesbank"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">An embargo on Russian gas imports triggered by a further escalation of the war in Ukraine could plunge Germany into a recession, the Bundesbank warned on Friday, but Europe\u2019s largest economy would probably shrink less severely than during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">An immediate EU ban on Russian gas would cost Germany the equivalent of \u20ac165bn (\u00a3138bn) in lost output this year, according to the country\u2019s central bank.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">\u201cIn the severe crisis scenario, real GDP in the current year would fall by almost 2% compared to 2021,\u201d the Bundesbank said in its latest monthly report.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"js-rich-link ar-1evhavk js-news\" data-article-id=\"\/rendered-items\/world\/2022\/apr\/09\/firms-will-go-bust-germany-prepares-for-a-future-without-russian-gas\">\n<div class=\"js-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b72594ff19905a7c78d2133bd96b5ca05af7e0d1\/0_368_6797_4077\/master\/6797.jpg?width=500&amp;quality=85&amp;fit=bounds&amp;s=e2fdd283a750a863aff00bf6652bc84a\" alt=\"Related article\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">Germany\u2019s manufacturing-heavy economy would feel the painful consequences of gas-shortages for the coming years, the bank\u2019s report said. \u201cIn addition, the inflation rate would be significantly higher for a longer period of time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">Before the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian natural gas accounted for 55% of Germany\u2019s gas needs, with roughly a third used for industrial production, including steel and chemicals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">\u201cNatural gas prices are likely to rise the most, as Russian deliveries are difficult to replace in the short term,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">However, in a heated German debate over the economic price the country should be prepared to pay to help cut off financial support for Putin\u2019s war economy, some have taken the Bundesbank report as positive news.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">\u201cThe economic slump would with high probability be less severe than during the corona crisis,\u201d wrote conservative broadsheet Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. \u201cIt puts even more pressure on the government to justify itself\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">Germany\u2019s GDP slumped by 4.6% in the first year of the pandemic, with a sharp recession ending a 10-year run of growth. The German economy recovered in 2021, growing by 2.9%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">While the European Union has already banned Russian coal and is preparing an embargo on its oil, plans for a gas boycott have stalled in part due to the concerns of Germany, which has warned that a recession on its own terrain could have devastating knock-on effects across the European Union.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">Germany\u2019s economy minister, Robert Habeck, has predicted \u201cmass unemployment, poverty, people who can\u2019t heat their homes, people who run out of petrol\u201d if his country stopped using Russian oil and gas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ar-1v2guui\">Critics say the German government\u2019s fears are based on political gut instincts and doomsday warnings of industrial lobbyists rather than concrete economic models.<br \/>\ntheguardian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An embargo on Russian gas imports triggered by a further escalation of the war in Ukraine could plunge Germany into a recession, the Bundesbank warned on Friday, but Europe\u2019s largest economy would probably shrink less severely than during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic. An immediate EU ban on Russian gas would cost Germany [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":20679,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_post_source_name":"","_post_source_url":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[8348,7358,5777,6068,3977,9386,10000,5313,8440,5262,11399,5196,6849,159,6621,9505,1195,746,5491,1237,66,2264,6543,10598,6546,10634,5441,5485,10381,9431,12103,10390,71,6069,3457,5732,5217,7023,5882,5180,7746,7231,5251,594],"class_list":["post-20678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-ban","tag-bank","tag-banned","tag-bundesbank","tag-central-bank","tag-coal","tag-conservative","tag-coronavirus","tag-crisis","tag-cut","tag-debate","tag-economy","tag-embargo","tag-eu","tag-europe","tag-european","tag-european-union","tag-feel","tag-gas","tag-gdp","tag-germany","tag-government","tag-growth","tag-homes","tag-inflation","tag-lost","tag-oil","tag-pandemic","tag-petrol","tag-poverty","tag-price","tag-prices","tag-putin","tag-recession","tag-russia","tag-russia-oil","tag-russian","tag-shrink","tag-steel","tag-ukraine","tag-unemployment","tag-union","tag-war","tag-who"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20678\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}