{"id":24271,"date":"2022-07-15T06:45:06","date_gmt":"2022-07-15T06:45:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/?p=24271"},"modified":"2022-07-15T06:45:06","modified_gmt":"2022-07-15T06:45:06","slug":"chinas-economic-growth-slumps-sharply-after-covid-lockdowns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/2022\/07\/15\/chinas-economic-growth-slumps-sharply-after-covid-lockdowns\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economic growth slumps sharply after Covid lockdowns"},"content":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s economic growth has slowed sharply in the second quarter of the year, official data showed on Friday, highlighting the colossal toll from widespread Covid lockdowns and casting doubt over whether its pre-ordained growth target can be met.<\/p>\n

Output contracted by 2.6% between April and June compared with the previous quarter, the statistics bureau said, prompting many economists to revise their predictions for the world\u2019s second biggest economy.<\/p>\n

On an annual basis the economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, the worst since the pandemic-hit first months of 2020, but even that was worse than the consensus forecast by economists of 1%.<\/p>\n

The consultancy Capital Economics said the real figure was probably \u201ceven weaker than meets the eye\u201d and suggested that the Chinese government \u2013 accustomed to trumpeting growth well above that achieved by western countries \u2013 could be trying to disguise<\/p>\n

\u201cEven with some massaging of the figures, it\u2019s hard to seehow the government\u2019s target of \u2018around 5.5%\u2019 growth this year can be attained. That would take a huge acceleration in the second half of this year, which is unlikely,\u201d said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist, in a note on Friday.<\/p>\n

While noting some strong signs of recovery in retail sales for example, Evans-Pritchard said growth was \u201clikely to remain relatively weak over the coming quarters\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect the official GDP figures to eke out growth of 3%-4% this year but think the reality on the ground will be closer to zero growth across the year as a whole,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The signs were mounting that the economy was slowing. This week\u2019s figures showed that imports for the second quarter grew by just 0.1%, called \u201cstaggeringly\u201d low by one economist considering that prices for key imported commodities such as oil and food have rocketed since April.<\/p>\n

The statistics bureau also said on Friday that youth unemployment has risen to 19.3%, a trend accelerated by the full or partial lockdowns imposed in major centres across China in March and April, including the commercial capital, Shanghai.<\/p>\n

\n

While many of those curbs have since been lifted, and June data offered signs of improvement, analysts do not expect a rapid economic recovery. China is sticking to its tough zero-Covid policy amid fresh flare-ups, the country\u2019s property market is in a deep slump, and the global outlook is darkening.<\/p>\n

The slowdown comes after China\u2019s biggest city, Shanghai, was sealed off for two months as it battled a Covid-19 resurgence, tangling supply chains and forcing factories to halt operations.<\/p>\n

Beijing has dug its heels in on a zero-Covid policy of stamping out virus clusters as they emerge with snap lockdowns and long quarantines, but this has battered businesses and kept consumers jittery.<\/p>\n

\"A
Analysts expect that pressure on consumption will probably persist.<\/span> Photograph: Hugo Hu\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cDomestically, the impact of the epidemic is lingering,\u201d the statistics bureau said in a statement on Friday, noting shrinking demand and disrupted supplies.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe risk of stagflation in the world economy is rising,\u201d the statement said, noting that external uncertainties were growing.<\/p>\n

The data comes in the wake of mounting challenges in China\u2019s key real estate sector\u2013 which by some estimates accounts for a quarter of gross domestic product \u2013 with weak home sales in recent months.<\/p>\n

A growing number of homebuyers are also refusing to pay their mortgages over worries their homes will not be built on time.<\/p>\n

Although there are signs that China\u2019s economy has started to recover since Shanghai eased lockdown restrictions in June, analysts expect that pressure on consumption will probably persist.<\/p>\n

The news piles pressure on the Communist party\u2019s leadership, which is gearing up for its 20th congress, when President Xi Jinping is expected to be handed another five-year term.<\/p>\n

With Reuters and Agence France-Presse<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s economic growth has slowed sharply in the second quarter of the year, official data showed on Friday, highlighting the colossal toll from widespread Covid lockdowns and casting doubt over whether its pre-ordained growth target can be met. Output contracted by 2.6% between April and June compared with the previous quarter, the statistics bureau said, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":24272,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_post_source_name":"","_post_source_url":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[6263,11583,7421,9331,8307,8263,6693,8051,5222,5200,7396,11337,7461,5196,9983,8123,6496,5575,1237,2264,6543,10598,9974,8235,10742,5441,11973,5485,96,3805,11243,10390,6544,12273,5807,5601,912,7328,8840,7746,3954,36,7898,8327,5784,6309],"class_list":["post-24271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-beijing","tag-capital","tag-chinese","tag-city","tag-communist","tag-communist-party","tag-congress","tag-consumers","tag-covid","tag-covid-19","tag-data","tag-demand","tag-digital-market","tag-economy","tag-epidemic","tag-eye","tag-food","tag-france","tag-gdp","tag-government","tag-growth","tag-homes","tag-leadership","tag-lockdown","tag-market","tag-oil","tag-one","tag-pandemic","tag-china","tag-president","tag-president-xi","tag-prices","tag-property","tag-real-estate","tag-risk","tag-shanghai","tag-snap","tag-stagflation","tag-strong","tag-unemployment","tag-will","tag-world","tag-xi","tag-xi-jinping","tag-youth","tag-zero-covid"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24271\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}