![\"Maintenance](\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/1869097ce243159b3c4148602643e860f87519f6\/0_0_4785_7225\/master\/4785.jpg?width=445&quality=85&dpr=1&s=none\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nMaintenance operative Matt Clark, 42, predicted the Conservatives were going to lose the next election. Photograph: Sonja Horsman\/The Observer<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Among them was Matt Clark, 42, a maintenance operative, saying it was \u201csomeone else\u2019s turn now\u201d. He added: \u201cThe Tories have had 13 years \u2013 and in Borehamwood they\u2019ve had a lot longer. They\u2019re going to lose the general election.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He had no faith in the last two prime ministers and criticised Sunak\u2019s personal use of capital gains tax. But his view of Labour and Keir Starmer was not necessarily much better. \u201cStarmer trying to outdo Rishi and Rishi trying to outdo Starmer. They\u2019re all morons in their own way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He voted Leave in the Brexit referendum, but felt hugely let down by it now. \u201cBecause of all the things we were promised. The NHS was promised \u00a3350m and that never happened. They told us all these new opportunities for the country would come about and they never did.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI did vote, not for the Tories,\u201d said Jodie Sharp, 43, a company owner from the town. Ordinarily, she would be a potential Conservative voter, but not this time, saying Labour was \u201cbetter for the community\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While apathy appears to have hit all parties, one Tory voter said he felt too \u201cdisheartened and disconnected\u201d to vote. Another described Sunak as \u201ca wet lettuce\u201d and criticised Starmer for not being clear on his policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the final results across England were collated and announced on Saturday, the message became ever clearer. Arguments can be made about the level of support Labour received and whether it puts Starmer on course, as he insisted, for a majority at the next election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What was unequivocal, however, was that this was an anti-Tory set of results. The party\u2019s 26% projected national vote share was one of its worst performances and at the lowest end of expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, there were huge wins by the Lib Dems and the Greens, who gained 405 and 241 seats respectively. The council gains made by Labour, despite a 35% vote share that was good if not spectacular, suggest a brutally efficient arrangement of the anti-Tory troops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is true that in the 1995 locals, prior to [Tony] Blair\u2019s 1997 landslide, Labour got a 47% share of the vote, compared with 35% now,\u201d said former Tory adviser Sam Freedman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBut the Tories were in almost exactly the same place on 25%. The main shift between 1995 and 2023 is in the distribution of the anti-Tory vote, not its existence. Sunak is in just as bad a position as [John] Major was then, and without even a once-in-a-generation political talent like Blair to blame it on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a result, the Lib Dems prospered in the Hertsmeres of the south-east, while Labour secured gains in urban centres and towns where the party collapsed after Brexit and in the 2019 general election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Lib Dems are understandably excited about what it could mean for an election and the number of senior Tories who could be in trouble. They say they have made 132 net gains in council areas represented by cabinet ministers. They are now targeting the likes of Michael Gove, Gillian Keegan, Jeremy Hunt and Mel Stride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFormer Conservative strongholds, from Surrey to Stratford-on-Avon, are now looking more vulnerable than ever,\u201d said a Lib Dem strategist. \u201cCabinet ministers who have always taken their voters for granted will be looking nervously over their shoulders at the threat posed by the Lib Dems.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And, crucially, there are now structural changes that are a problem for the Conservatives. Unlike in previous elections since the days of David Cameron, after the demise of Ukip and the Brexit party, there is no longer a bank of voters on the right who the party can expect to flock to its banner come a general election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It leaves a series of intriguing and related questions before the next election about what will happen to this anti-Tory vote. The local election results saw a significant amount of tactical voting. In some cases, such as Bracknell Forest in Berkshire, parties appeared to stand aside for each other. In other areas, cooperation was more subtle but clearly taking place. Supporters of \u201cprogressive alliances\u201d hope it is a sign of something happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe are witnessing a pitch invasion of local electoral politics,\u201d said Neal Lawson, director of cross-party campaign group Compass. \u201cLocal parties, activists and voters are fed up with losing apart and are now working under the radar to cooperate and win together. Cross-party working must now take centre stage to ensure the Tories lose the next election.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A critical unknown is how those who voted Lib Dem and Green will behave come the general election next year. Could they then flock to Labour, or will some in the south-east go back to the Tories? Or could they stick with the smaller parties in places where they are strong?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis combination of fragmentation and tactical coordination brings both risk and opportunity for Labour,\u201d writes Robert Ford, professor of political science at Manchester University, in Sunday\u2019s Observer<\/em>. Ford was part of the BBC team that calculated the all-important national vote share implied by the local elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSome of those backing smaller parties may be voters who reject the Conservatives yet also remain unconvinced by Labour. Labour cannot be certain of their future support. Yet growing evidence of an electorate sufficiently angry at Tory incumbents to back whoever stands a chance of defeating them may presage tactical voting on a scale not seen since 1997.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet even as the themes of the result become clear, there was also a sense in Hertsmere that voters are still waiting to be inspired by any party or leader \u2013 the main task facing Starmer between now and the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shelley Rowson, 67, said she made a conscious decision not to vote in Thursday\u2019s local election as she did not trust any of the candidates. Photograph: Sonja Horsman\/Sonja Horsman\/The Observer<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shelley Rowson, 67, a lifelong Labour voter until Blair\u2019s leadership, lives alone in Borehamwood, where she has been for nearly 40 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She did not vote on Thursday. \u201cIt was a very conscious choice,\u201d she said. \u201cPersonally, I think they\u2019re all rubbish, I don\u2019t trust any of them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n She added: \u201cIt makes it really difficult for me because I don\u2019t agree with the Conservatives and I don\u2019t agree with Labour.\u201d The Lib Dems, she believes, have not seized the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Party leaders, she said, need to show that that they \u201cactually care about the people of this country. People are falling into debt, losing their homes and when they lose their homes they don\u2019t do anything to help them. It\u2019s devastating.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Labour councillor Jeremy Newmark, leader of the opposition at Hertsmere borough council, said multiple factors were at play in this election, including the Conservatives\u2019 local plan, which he said would have \u201cdecimated\u201d the green belt, the council\u2019s Conservative leadership and an improved standing for Labour among Jewish voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt was a bit of a rollercoaster ride but already 18 months ago we had a sense that the mood was ripe for change,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In Hertfordshire\u2019s towns, as across much of formerly \u2018true blue\u2019 England, the appetite for change proved decisively strong. It was little more than a year ago that Oliver Dowden stood up at Conservative spring conference to praise the \u201ccalm suburbia of Hertfordshire\u201d, home to his own Hertsmere constituency, and vowed to defend the \u201cprivet hedges […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":32898,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_post_source_name":"","_post_source_url":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[7358,2735,75,3501,3782,10387,11583,8924,10000,2512,1677,6725,6576,1458,911,1258,9883,6397,3577,10020,10598,5252,8248,8331,1828,3642,9974,2405,4624,5721,10634,11743,11252,10019,325,6864,3570,7968,11973,5424,3174,10313,7400,13301,5266,5807,2381,12778,9176,8840,8302,1502,11906,7836,4890,255,9178,214,6348,3954,594],"class_list":["post-32888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news","tag-bank","tag-bbc","tag-brexit","tag-brexit-party","tag-cabinet","tag-campaign","tag-capital","tag-chance","tag-conservative","tag-conservatives","tag-david-cameron","tag-debt","tag-democrats","tag-distribution","tag-election","tag-england","tag-fed","tag-ford","tag-future","tag-gove-michael","tag-homes","tag-invasion","tag-jeremy-hunt","tag-keir-starmer","tag-labour","tag-landslide","tag-leadership","tag-lib-dem","tag-lib-dems","tag-losses","tag-lost","tag-majority","tag-manchester","tag-mark-clark","tag-michael-gove","tag-ministers","tag-nhs","tag-nine","tag-one","tag-politics","tag-prime-minister","tag-professor","tag-referendum","tag-results","tag-rishi-sunak","tag-risk","tag-science","tag-seized","tag-spring","tag-strong","tag-sunak","tag-tax","tag-the-general","tag-the-liberal-democrats","tag-tories","tag-tory","tag-troops","tag-university","tag-us","tag-will","tag-who"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32888\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nsemgh.com\/api-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Shelley](\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/787608f8fa19f5ad63fca6d2f2f393809ea14b58\/0_526_4812_2887\/master\/4812.jpg?width=445&quality=85&dpr=1&s=none\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n