Ecuador Poised to Challenge Ghana for Second Spot in Global Cocoa Rankings

Ecuador is on track to tilt the balance in the world cocoa market. According to industry forecasts, the South American nation aims to produce over 650,000 metric tons of cocoa in the 2026/27 season, potentially overtaking Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa grower. 

Driving Forces Behind Ecuador’s Surge

Rising global cocoa prices have provided fresh momentum. Farmers and exporters in Ecuador are reinvesting in their farms, adopting higher-yielding agroforestry models, and benefiting from favorable pricing arrangements that align more closely with global benchmarks. 

The chairman of Anecacao, Ivan Ontaneda, argues that Ecuador has structural advantages: better integration between exporters and growers, stronger incentives for productivity, and more sustainable farming practices. 

Ghana’s Position: Strengths and Vulnerabilities

Ghana has long been the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, trailing only Côte d’Ivoire. 

But recent seasons have been challenging. Production in 2023/24 dropped to about 531,000 metric tons — a two-decade low.  Meanwhile, key cocoa-growing regions in Ghana are heavily affected by swollen-shoot virus and other diseases, with some estimates showing over 80% infection in certain areas. 

The government has responded with efforts to prune and rehabilitate farms, distribute inputs to farmers, and boost yields. For the 2024/25 season, the projection is ~700,000 metric tons — signaling a possible recovery. 

Still, experts warn that Ghana risks being eclipsed if it does not address systemic issues such as aging cocoa trees, declining soil fertility, illegal mining in cocoa zones, and smuggling. 

What It Means for the Global Cocoa Market

• If Ecuador succeeds, it would join Côte d’Ivoire at the top, pushing Ghana to third place.
• Such a shift could alter trade patterns, pricing negotiations, and investment flows in the cocoa industry.
• For Ghana, maintaining its position will require sustained reforms and investments to boost farmer productivity and battle diseases.

Bottom line: The claim in the image is not yet a settled fact, but it reflects a credible and ambitious projection. Ecuador’s trajectory must be watched closely — and Ghana will have to act decisively to hold on to its place.

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